Samsonite! I Was Way Off!

 



The 7-2, 1st place Marauders went against the 2nd place 6-3 team.
The ESPN projections had the Marauders scoring 139 fantasy points. Now, that is a pretty high number, so looking back at my more conservative projection from the forecast, I projected 111 points.

Slippy? 
Slappy? 
Swenson?
Swanson? 

The Marauders scored 82 points. I was WAY off!

What went right:
Hmm. Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton had 13 points in a game where the Colts got dominated.
Steven Hauschka had a day with 19 points.

What went wrong:
Pretty much everything. Everyone under-performed besides Hauschka. Dez Bryant was a "must start" according to all the fantasy pundits. Yeah. Big 4 points from him. Vincent Jackson was projected to have a big game, 2 points. On a night where the Saints were playing against cardboard cut outs, Jimmy Graham didn't do much of anything, 5 points. Also, Eddie Lacy was supposed to carry the Packers. He did get a lot of carries, but he never found the end zone, 8 points.

Thoughts:
When your kicker is your top scorer for a week, things are not going well. I got dominated by the 2nd place team and am now in a tie for 1st.

Stat of the week:
Dez Bryant had one catch for 44 yards. He was only targeted twice. Here is a quote from ESPN, "He was a must-start anyway, but Bryant owners should feel confident that he'll be his usual productive self in what could be a barn-burner against the Saints on Sunday."
Yeah, about that.

Dumb & Dumber (1994)

Oooh Wee You Good Lookin'

I'm looking at you Pierre Garcon! It's like, looking in a mirror, but...not. It's like someone took your Face Off and put it on a different player. Enough with the puns, it's time for the...

Thursday night game recap! 

Only the Besaid Aurochs had any players playing last night, but they had 3 of them playing. Adrian Peterson, Pierre Garcon, and Jordan Reed.

Adrian Peterson is back it seems with three straight weeks of double digit fantasy points. He ran for 75 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for 19 points. He was projected to get 16, so he beat his projection by 3 (math!).

Jordan Reed had 62 yards and 1 touchdown, doubling his projection of 6 to 12. So far, so good by sitting Greg Olsen.

Pierre Garcon, can you believe all it took for him to catch fire was a threat from me to end our relationship? Two games in a row now with double digit points. This time he got 119 yards and 1 touchdown, good for 17 points. He was projected for 9.

So with those three players being great overachievers, I'm ahead of the ESPN total projection by 17 points. So, I've got some room to work with if a player decides to tank.

Looking ahead to Sunday, Dezi Wezi Bryant is still listed as Questionable and it could be something wrong with a disk in his back. If that is the case and he is cleared to play, I would still be leery in starting him on 2 of my fantasy teams. I can switch him out with Kenny Stills and hope on the Aurochs. On the Marauders, I dropped Percy Harvin and picked up Ashlon Jeffrey, so I should have fairly decent replacements should Dez not be 100% come game time.

The Walls Are Moving!

From Star Wars: Episode IV - A New Hope (1977)

"I got a bad feeling about this..."  - Han Solo

The 5-4 second place Besaid Aurochs vs. the 4-5 3rd place team.

Adds/Drops:

Dropped Adam Vinateri - K
Added Andre Ellington - RB

Thoughts:
I don't know why, but I don't feel good about the Aurochs this week. It could be because I'm only projected to get 110 points, so with my conservative estimate I would say 91. That may or may not be enough. My opponent is projected for 106 points, so it appears to be an even match. Of course everyone could have a career game and I could laugh all the way to the bank, we'll see. Half my team is playing against easier defenses, while the other half is going against better defenses. My opponent only has one player that is facing a good defense. Oh hey, Pierre Garcon earned another start with me!

Then there is my bench. Only one player on BYE this week. Giovani Bernard had a great game last week, but he's questionable for this week because of a rib injury. Plus he is going against the #1 run defense, according to ESPN, of the Ravens. So I think it would be a safe call to keep him benched, even though he has a double digit point projection. The Cardinals' secondary has a lot of interceptions, so I think I'll keep DeAndre Hopkins on the bench. I would start Greg Olsen over Jordan Reed, because Reed got a big 0 last week, but Reed has a much better match-up this week. Andy Dalton, thanks but no thanks. Kenny Stills is projected for 12 points, but he is extremely hit or miss. He will either get 0-2 or 15-21, there won't be any in between. Even though he is going against an awful Cowboys defense, eh, I don't know. This will be a game time decision. Lastly, the guy I added this week, Andre Ellington. He is going against the Texans run defense, which I thought was pretty good, but it's just average according to ESPN. He would have to go in my FLEX spot, because there is no way I am benching Adrian Peterson or Eddie Lacy. So it will be between Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Stills, and Andre Ellington for the Flex spot.

Besaid Aurochs Projected Starters:

Position	Player	Projected Points
QB	Tony Romo	15
RB1	Adrian Peterson	16
RB2	Eddie Lacy	19
WR1	Dez Bryant	13
WR2	Pierre Garcon	9
TE	Jordan Reed	6
FLEX	Larry Fitzgerald	10
D/ST	Panthers	6
K	Matt Prater	16
Total Projection		110

BENCH:

Position	Player	Projected Points
RB	Giovani Bernard	12
D/ST	Patriots	BYE
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	6
TE	Greg Olsen	5
QB	Andy Dalton	16
WR	Kenny Stills	12
RB	Andre Ellington	7

Discovered By The Germans In 1904

From Anchorman (2004). Googled from: provine.blogspot.com

Me: Mm, drink it in! It always goes down smooth.

Reader: What a beautiful blog!

Me: I know. I love this blog. It's a... It's a fact! 

I'm still tweaking...the format here, so bear with me and give me some feedback. I thought it would be better to have my commentary and such first so that you can read immediately instead of looking at boring figures and numbers. So here we go, it's time for the week 10 forecast for the Ul'Dah Immortal Flames!

The 6-3 tied for 1st Immortal Flames vs. the 5-4 4th place team.

Adds/Drops:
Dropped Terrance Williams - WR
Added Cardinals - D/ST

Thoughts:
Only one tough call this week, on paper anyway. Should I start Matthew Stafford, who is playing in Chicago against the 8th ranked defense, but still projected to get 19 points? Or Phillip Rivers who is playing at home in San Diego, German for a whale's vag against Denver's 22nd ranked defense, but projected to make 18 points? Well, I was going to start Rivers, but all of the "experts" at ESPN are all saying that Stafford is a better pick for week 10 than Rivers. It's a fairly wide margin too. They are unanimously ranking Stafford the 3rd best QB to start, while Rivers is ranked 8th with rankings as high as 4th and as low as 9th. Now both are top 10 QBs this week, so they'll both probably do well. ESPN rankings are not the end all for predictions and rankings, because you can usually flip a coin to determine if their predictions hold true, but I'm just using them for guidance because I am in ESPN leagues.

Speaking of ESPN predictions and projections, they are predicting the Immortal Flames to score 126 points. I always like to go with a more conservative prediction, I'll go with 105, which could be low (hopefully). My opponent, if they stick with the team they are listing right now, is projected to get 117, so pretty close. However, he has 3 key players listed as questionable to my Julius Thomas listed as questionable.

Projected Immortal Flames Starters:

Position	Player	Projected Points
QB	Matthew Stafford	19
RB1	Matt Forte	18
RB2	Eddie Lacy	19
WR1	A.J. Green	14
WR2	Larry Fitzgerald	10
TE	Julius Thomas	11
FLEX	Knowshon Moreno	16
D/ST	Cardinals	7
K	Steven Hauschka	12
Total Projection		126

BENCH

Position	Player	Projected Points
RB	Ray Rice	4
TE	Rob Gronkowski	BYE
QB	Philip Rivers	18
WR	Torrey Smith	8
D/ST	Chiefs	BYE
TE	Jordan Cameron	BYE
WR	Percy Harvin	OUT

She's A Brick Hauschka: The Junktown Marauders Week 10 Forecast!

Googled from: spectrum.ieee.org

The 1st place Marauders are 7-2 going against a 2nd place 6-3 team.

Projected Marauder Starters:

Position	Player	Projected Points
QB	Andrew Luck	17
RB1	Eddie Lacy	19
RB2	Knowshon Moreno	16
WR1	Dez Bryant	13
WR2	T.Y. Hilton	13
TE	Jimmy Graham	22
FLEX	Vincent Jackson	14
D/ST	Titans	13
K	Steven Hauschka	12
Total Projection		139

BENCH:

Position	Player	Projected Points
RB	Jamaal Charles	BYE
TE	Rob Gronkowski	BYE
WR	Mike Wallace	13
RB	Ryan Mathews	12
D/ST	Chiefs	BYE
WR	Percy Harvin	OUT
QB	Andy Dalton	16

Adds/Drops:

Added Titans - D/ST

Dropped Kenny Stills - WR

Thoughts:

As of this writing, Dez Bryant is questionable for Sunday's game with a back problem. I could switch him out with Mike Wallace in an emergency, but I'd rather not. They are both projected to get 13 points, but I just don't see Wallace getting there. I'm starting Luck over Dalton because of last week and because Luck will be at home against the Rams, while Dalton will be on the road against the Ravens. Hopefully T.Y. and Luck will have another great game. Since the Chiefs elite D/ST is on BYE, I picked up the Titans off the waiver wire. They are going against the Jaguars, so they should do pretty well I hope. 

ESPN is predicting my team will get 139 points, I am going to predict a more conservative 111. My opponent, if they are going with their current lineup is projected to get 96 points, so I'm feeling pretty good about this week right now. (Famous last words). 

Taking Out The Trash: Besaid Aurochs Week 9 Recap!

The 4-4 Aurochs vs. a 2-6 team.

The Besaid Aurochs:

Position	Player	Points Scored
QB	Tony Romo	19
RB1	Adrian Peterson	23
RB2	Eddie Lacy	21
WR1	Dez Bryant	6
WR2	Pierre Garcon	17
TE	Greg Olsen	12
FLEX	Kenny Stills	3
D/ST	Patriots	5
K	Adam Vinatieri	6
Total Points		112

The Opponent's Team:

Position	Player	Points Scored
QB	Ben Roethlisberger	26
RB1	C.J. Spiller	14
RB2	Alfred Morris	18
WR1	Vincent Brown	1
WR2	Vincent Jackson	1
TE	Tony Gonzalez	14
FLEX	Mike Wallace	8
D/ST	Steelers	-7
K	Randy Bullock	4
Total Points		79

Googled from: content.time.com

What went right:

Adrian Peterson had a great game with 140 yards and a TD. Tired of me talking about Eddie Lacy? Well, too bad! He, as you already know from my previous two recaps this week, had himself a game. I spent all last week trashing Pierre Garcon and guess what? He must have heard me. He had 172 yards receiving, good for 17 points. The Steelers defense taking 7 points away from my opponent. I've seen -1 a few times and -2 once or twice, but never have I seen a -7 before. Thanks Tom Brady!

What went wrong:

Kenny Stills wasn't a good waiver pick up. I had the Panthers defense, who scored 20, on the bench. The Patriots only got me 5. Also, remember my rant about Giovani Bernard last week, yeah. Other than that, nothing went terribly wrong.

Thoughts:

The Aurochs needed this one, an easy team to beat to get back over .500. At 5-4 I am now 4th place in the league, 2nd in the division. Charge!

Stat of the week:

The Aurochs were projected to get 127 points. I was more bearish on them, just predicting 101. They just about split the difference getting 112. I'll take that all day. 

A Swift Kick To The Balls: Immortal Flames Week 9 Recap.

My 6-2 team vs. a 4-3-1 team.

Ul'Dah Immortal Flames:

Position	Player	Points Scored
QB	Philip Rivers	18
RB1	Matt Forte	23
RB2	Eddie Lacy	21
WR1	A.J. Green	12
WR2	Terrance Williams	3
TE	Jordan Cameron	0
FLEX	Ray Rice	3
D/ST	Chiefs	16
K	Steven Hauschka	9
Total Points		105

Opponent's Team:

Position	Player	Points Scored
QB	Tony Romo	19
RB1	Jamaal Charles	9
RB2	Giovani Bernard	21
WR1	Dwayne Bowe	6
WR2	Golden Tate	2
TE	Jimmy Graham	23
FLEX	Vincent Brown	1
D/ST	Panthers	20
K	Adam Vinatieri	6
Total Points		107

Googled from: theaudiocave.com

What went right:

Well, Matt Forte and Eddie Lacy tore it up last night on Monday Night Football getting 23 and 21 fantasy points respectively. The Chiefs defense continues to shine. 

What went wrong:

Life and luck. Only 2 players on my bench we not on BYE, one of them was Rob Gronkowski who scored 20 points. Even if I started Torrey Smith over Terrance Williams or Ray Rice, I would have won. Ray Rice, what an awful 1st round pick so far. It's not all his fault with the terrible offensive line, but he's also been playing hurt this year. With Forte, Lacy, and Knowshon Moreno on my team, the clock is ticking on Rice. I wouldn't ever start Jordan Cameron again, except Gronkowski is on BYE for week 10. 

Thoughts:

Ughhhh. This one hurts. A 2 point loss that could have easily been a win. Thankfully, the team I was in a 1st place tie with also lost so this team is still tied for 1st place.

Stat of the week:

Ray Rice had 11 carries for just 17 yards. That is 1.5 yards per carry. 3rd and 4th string running backs could do better than that.